UPDATE

April 20 2012

April 2 2012
Friends of the Syrian People Meeting in Turkey
Iran
The United States laid out its demands for upcoming negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran in Turkey. American President Obama spent the end of the week coordinating with Western allies on contingencies if the talks fail, including a deepening of the sanctions regime that last week broadened to include leading oil companies in South Africa and Greece and a key Chinese shipping insurer. The U.S. administration plans to open talks by demanding a shutdown of the nuclear enrichment facilities near Fordo and a halt in uranium fuel production. These positions are in contrast to those acceptable to Russia and China, creating divisions that the Iranians will attempt to exploit.

The Obama administration is preparing for the day after failed talks, a near-certain outcome that will be taken by the Israelis as a sign that a diplomatic solution to Iranian nuclearization is out of reach. All signs indicate that the U.S. President remains committed to preventing Israeli military action to degrade Iran's nuclear assets. The Istanbul negotiations have further geopolitical implications independent of the substance of the talks. Iran has previously balked at holding the talks in Turkey but has since softened its position, potentially signaling that Tehran feels increasingly isolated and seeks to avoid alienating regional friends. Iran also made moves to shrug off its isolation by appointing master spymaster and Qods Force official Major-General Qasem Soleiman to direct efforts to increase Iran's influence abroad.

Israel
Though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad in the coming weeks, Palestinian Authority President is again committing himself to seeking a unilateral statehood resolution in the United Nations Security Council.

Diplomatically the gambit is a non-starter. It sets up a replay of last year's diplomatic drama, wherein the United States committed in advance to vetoing such a resolution and expended significant diplomatic capital to prevent the Palestinians from achieving a majority. Palestinian Authority lawfare efforts sustained an addition blow as the International Criminal Court on Tuesday rejected a request to expand the court's jurisdiction into incidents that occurred in the Gaza Strip during Israel's 2009 Operation Cast Lead in 2009.

In an unusual public statement that generated international coverage, Hamas Minister of the Interior and of National Security Fathi Hammad stated that half of the Palestinians are Egyptians and the other half are Saudis. A member of Hamas political bureau urged Arab and Muslim nations to defend the Al-Aqsa Mosque from Jews, and Palestinians launched rocket fire from Gaza over the Passover weekend.
The Palestinian rocket fire comes on the heels of Israel's new deterrence policy, under Hamas is held responsible for attacks originating in the Gaza Strip or Sinai Peninsula; Hezbollah is held responsible for attacks from Lebanon; and Iran is held responsible for attacks by its proxies abroad. Gaza Palestinians, either at Iran's behest or on their own, seem to be testing Israel's commitment to the new policy, setting the stage for potential escalation in the region. Overseas Iranian proxy operations were also in the news last week as Argentina announced that former President Carlos Menem will be tried for allegedly protecting Hezbollah during the investigation for the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish Community Center that left 85 dead and hundreds injured.

Syria
A tenuous U.N.-backed ceasefire appeared to unravel before being reinstated at the end of the week. The Assad regime has oscillated on its conditions, including demands that armed groups commit in writing to laying down their weapons, a condition that the Free Syrian Army will not meet.

The Assad regime signaled that it was willing to escalate military action under any scenario, announcing an upgrade in military capabilities after a new offensive that took the lives of more 100 people, including at least 74 civilians. An Iranian truck carrying suspicious chemicals was stopped by Turkish officials en route to Syria.

The ongoing fighting is destabilizing Syria's neighborhood and exacting a price on the Assad regime. The fighting of the last two weeks triggered a flood of refugees into Turkey, precipitating a border incident in which Syrian forces opened fire across the Turkish border, and in turn leading Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to float invoking Article 5 of the NATO charter. Syrian fighting also heightened tensions in Lebanon, triggering factional infighting within Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps between those who are for and those against the Assad regime.

Egypt
Even as the Muslim Brotherhood launched a campaign to woo domestic Islamists, with candidate Khairat el-Shater pledging to press for the full implementation of Islamic law throughout Egypt if elected, other Muslim Brotherhood officials were on a charm offensive in Washington promoting a moderate image and taking meetings in the White House.

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