Why am I writing so much about U.S. policy lately and less about developments within the region itself lately? Because in a real sense not that much is happening right now in the region. A colleague remarked to me today that the world's political weather is set by the U.S. president. This seems very true right now.

Recently, there was a bit of a war scare regarding the Israel-Lebanon border. Yet there was never any chance of a shooting conflict. Syria and Hizballah don't want one at present. They are too busy taking over Lebanon and are holding their fire for the possibility in future of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

There's also a lot of noise about Israel-Palestinian Authority indirect negotiations. But nothing is happening or going to happen there either. The closer you get to the two sides--and the further from the discussion in the Western media and capitals--the more obvious is that reality.

Regrading Israeli politics, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition is solid. The Kadima-led opposition is very quiet and not making any strong points. Netanyahu's government is going to continue for quite a while.

Nor have there been any big changes in the internal stability of Arabic-speaking countries, though we are all waiting for the coming transition in Egypt. Turkey's regime continues to march it in the direction of greater Islamism, though the outside world seems to take little notice. Lebanon's "progress" in the direction of Syria-Iran control is clearer. And it is now clear that the Iranian regime has defeated the opposition for the forseeable future, which probably means a bundle of years.

At the moment, then, the main battle is being fought over the region's head, so to speak, regarding Iran's nuclear program. That involves U.S. policy and the question of sanctions. The foundation for the future--and it might be a very weak one--is being laid down in these maneuvers. For the failure to establish strong sanctions indicates that it is unlikely U.S. policy will be able to build a strong containment strategy in the era when Iran does have these weapons.

If you've been following my writings, you understand that doesn't mean Tehran will fire off nuclear-armed missiles, just that Tehran will try to gain hegemony in the Middle East. It won't succeed but it will make progress in that direction.

In the longer term, I'm reaching two conclusions. First, we should be devoting our research to what the region would look like once Iran has nuclear weapons. Second, i don't believe that Israel is going to attack Iran, and my conclusion is that this is a correct decision. I'll be talking more about these points in the coming days.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). His new edited books include Lebanon: Liberation, Conflict and Crisis; Guide to Islamist Movements; Conflict and Insurgency in the Middle East; The West and the Middle East (four volumes); and The Muslim Brotherhood. To read and subscribe to MERIA, GLORIA articles, or to order books. To see or subscribe to his blog, Rubin Reports.
Posted by Barry Rubin at 9:58 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Labels: Understanding the Middle East
Friday, May 21, 2010
U.S. Made Secret Deals to Get Russia to Accept Sanctions Plan: Forgiving Previous Sanctions' Violators

By Barry Rubin

Still more goodies for Russia, obviously part of the deal to get Russian support for the sanctions' proposal on Iran. Not only is Russia able--if it ever wants to do so--to sell anti-aircraft missiles to Iran but Russian officials claim that all arms deals already negotiated are exempt. Moreover, we now learn that the U.S. government has dropped restrictions on four Russian institutions previously caught selling military equipment to Iran.

And consider the implications. The message being sent is: If you get caught in future violating sanctions' restrictions, you can get out of any penalization for doing so. Remember that the sanctions' proposal as presented has governments voluntarily deciding whether to implement the provisions, which are mostly recommended, not mandatory. The Russian government will never seriously investigate or punish its companies for violations.

What other secret deals with Russia and China have been made that we don't know about yet? And what will the U.S. government give to other countries--like Turkey and Brazil--to get their support either in terms of direct concessions or watering down the plan?
Posted by Barry Rubin at 11:20 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Labels: iran nuclear
Does Anyone in the U.S. Government Notice that They've Pushed Lebanon Into Iran's Arms?

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By Barry Rubin

Not long ago, Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt was a lion in standing up to the threat that Hizballah and its Iranian and Syrian sponsors would gain hegemony over Lebanon.

Now, he's a lion siding with Hizballah, Iran, and Syria. He identifies Israel as Lebanon's immediate enemy but--guess what?--also views the United States as Lebanon's enemy. So who is Lebanon's friend and protector? Iran and Syria.

Jumblatt is no coward but he's also no fool. If the Obama Administration won't stand up against tyrants and Islamists he sees no reason to sacrifice himself in a losing battle.

In his interview with the BBC Arabic television, as translated by MEMRI, Jumblatt says:

"The Western countries always want to sow strife in the Arab and Islamic world. Thank God that we have managed, along with the March 8 Alliance...we have avoided the sectarian strife that was planned for Lebanon....There used to be no sectarian disputes in Lebanon. Who tore Iraq to pieces if not America and the West? They manufactured this sectarian dispute, and slaughtered Iraq."

So here's the man who was formerly America's most courageous ally in Lebanon saying that the United States wanted to divide Lebanon and cause civil war but, thanks to the deity, this American plot has been avoided.

How's that popularity working out for you, President Obama?

Jumblatt continues to say that Lebanon should ask the United States for weapons with which it can fight Israel, but if Washington says "no," as he predicts, Lebanon has other friends.

As for Israel, he advocates a special relationship (code for subservience) to Syria. And while he doesn't want to attack the neighbor to the south, "We want neither peace nor a settlement with Israel." Even if Israel turns over the West Bank and east Jerusalem to a Palestinian state, that wouldn't be sufficient for peace because, says Jumblatt, it also has to let all the Palestinian refugees and their descendants to live in Israel.

Here's how I think Jumblatt's thinking goes. Note this is me speaking, not him:

"We cannot defeat Hizballah. They have the strongest militia. They have full backing from Syria and Iran. I and the Sunni Muslim and Christians have no backing from the United States or Europe. Therefore I must sell my soul to the devil in hopes of getting it back in future. This isn't the first time I have had to do something like this.

"We must avoid a civil war not only because it is bad in itself but also because we are likely to lose. Therefore, I must do everything possible to get along with Iran, Syria, Hizballah. And if the price is Syrian hegemony (at least, it's less than it used to be) and Hizballah highly armed and in government, and a verbal commitment to fight Israel, that's a price worth paying.

"The Americans have abandoned me so I don't owe them anything. I will mouth the line that they are the villains in order to keep Iran, Syria, and Hizballah happy.

"I hope Israel won't attack Lebanon and Hizballah doesn't attack Israel. If that happens, we're all in a lot of trouble. But I'm more afraid of Hizballah than of Israel; more afraid of Iran and Syria than of America. And so as the wind blows so I will sail in order to survive."

In short, his strategy is one of appeasement. There will be many more going down that road in the coming years. This is the fruit of Obama's policy, though in Lebanon, at least, the problem began during the Bush years.

It seems that the Obama Administration has no concept of how much damage its policy is doing to U.S. interests. After Jumblatt, one can watch for the "desertions" of U.S. allies first in Iraq and Afghanistan, with Arabic-speaking leaders next, at least to a limited extent.

Even if it is not U.S. policy, allowing high-level officials to speak about engagement with Hizballah--without punishing or firing them--sends a signal to moderates that one better get in good with the radicals, America isn't going to help you. You're on your own. And so make the best deal you can with Iran and Syria (or China, Russia, Venezuela, depending on where you are in the world).

Bonus feature! A great brief article by the masterful Michael Young which sharply explains the difference between the worldview of Washington idiots--oops! I meant decisionmakers--and reality on the ground.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). His new edited books include Lebanon: Liberation, Conflict and Crisis; Guide to Islamist Movements; Conflict and Insurgency in the Middle East; The West and the Middle East (four volumes); and The Muslim Brotherhood.
http://www.gloria-center.org/